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Thursday, March 16, 2017

One Shining Broment- Picking My Bracket

Sam Lunardlee's Bracketology:

Sam Lunardlee is my alternate name I use whenever the calendar flips to March. Just wanted to make that clear to everyone reading this.

Every year I already have in mind a couple of contenders for the National Championship. In 2011, it was Kemba Walker and the UConn Huskies, which proved to be one of my best predictions ever. Last year, it was Michigan State, who was stunned by Middle Tennessee State in the first round. Both years, and every year since I started doing brackets, I always have great confidence in my pick to win the title. This year, however, I was found myself struggling. Because I felt there are multiple legit contenders, I did not have the confidence I usually have when filling out my bracket. 

When filling out brackets, I always have a system:

  • First Bracket
    • The one I rely on the most. Always done old fashioned style- on paper.
  • Coin flip bracket
    • I have flipped the correct champion 3 of the last 4 years (2013: Louisville, 2014: UConn, 2015: Harvard (LOL), and 2016: Villanova). Pretty amazing, huh? Arkansas, don't let me down!
  • Upset Bracket
    • A bracket with some probable and somewhat farfetched upsets. I usually do not pick crazy picks such as a 16 seed advancing as far as the Sweet 16. Because we all know that won't happen... right?
  • Duke Bracket
    • Always have to have a bracket with your favorite team winning it all right? 
  • Other brackets include other possible teams I feel can win it all. 
My Pick to Win the Big Dance:

I've got the Duke Blue Devils. It feels right, because they are playing out of their minds their past four games, but feels wrong because it is my favorite team, and this comes off as if I am biased. 

Breaking Down My Bracket

East Region
This region is stacked with talented teams that are capable of making Final Four runs. Teams of this bracket consist of the last two teams win the National Championship in Villanova and Duke, to Baylor, Florida, Virginia, SMU, Wisconsin, and Virginia Tech. Each of these teams came into the tournament with impressive resumes. Which will come out on top? 

Wisconsin as an 8 seed is wrong. Minnesota, a 5 seed, finished fourth in the Big Ten Conference. Wisconsin finished second. How does that make sense? The Badgers put the first three letters in their team name to close out the season, after starting the season 21-3. They ended the regular season losing 5 of their last 7. 

This team has experience in the postseason. Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter are among players that were on the 2015 team that lost to Duke in the National Championship game. Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ have been vital factors to this team's success this season as well as last season. Picking them over Villanova may be pushing it a little bit, but in March, one must make bold picks. It should be a relatively close game since both teams have experience and play similarly.

Midwest Region
Nothing too crazy here. Rhode Island is coming into the tournament pretty hot and playing a beatable Creighton team. Is the #11 over #6 the new #12 over #5 🤔? Michigan is another hot team in this region that is coming in hot, however, I think they will lose to an experience and underrated Oklahoma State team. Kansas has one of the better complete teams in the country and I expect them to play like it and reach the Final Four. Oregon, Louisville, and Iowa State are teams that Kansas could run into and cause them trouble. 

West Region
Again, nothing too crazy. This is either Gonzaga or Arizona's year to reach the Final Four. Both have had great teams but have failed to reach the tournament in a while, or at all (in Gonzaga's case). I do have #11 Xavier in the Sweet 16. Florida State started the season off hot, and looked like one of the better teams in the nation. However, they began to play with some inconsistency. When the Noles would have an off game, it would be a REALLY off game. I expect them to bring their inconsistency to the dance and fail to reach the Sweet 16. I wanted to pick Notre Dame over Gonzaga because of Notre Dame's recent success in March, but Gonzaga has them outmatched greatly in rebounding, and that will be the difference in the game.

South Region
This region, along with the East region, may be the toughest one to predict correctly. UNC, UCLA, and Kentucky are the favorites to reach the Final Four, and all have great potential to win the National Championship. I would put my money on a team in the South Region to win it all out of any of the other regions. UNC, with the exception of Kansas, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Duke, Wisconsin, and Villanova have the most complete and experienced team in the nation. Carolina has most of their team from just a season ago, where they finished as runner-ups to Villanova in the championship. Despite these reasons, UCLA has been the team I have felt most of the season to win it all. I think they have what it takes to knock off Carolina. 

I noticed I put Wake down to beat Cincinnati in the first round because I really thought they were going to beat Kansas State. In place of Wake, I will have Kansas State winning over Cincinnati, since I technically did not have to pick a winner to the Wake Forrest-Kansas State play-in game. 

I have Wichita State reaching the Sweet 16 over Kentucky, which may be stretching it. I believe Gregg Marshall will remember how it felt in 2014 to lose in the second round as an undefeated team, to a scrappy Kentucky team that had just barely made the tournament that year, and eventually went as far as the championship. The tables have turned, and now Kentucky is in a similar situation as Wichita State was in in 2014. The Shockers will live up to their name and tame the Wildcats.

Final Four
Duke vs Gonzaga & Kansas vs UCLA. This will probably be wrong, but hey, it looks nice. If these are the matchups, Duke would have to be on their A-game rebounding the ball. Gonzaga is tied for 13th in the nation in rebounds per game. Kansas is a more experienced team than UCLA, and I feel like that is the advantage they have over UCLA. 

As I mentioned earlier, Duke won four games in four days to snatch the ACC Tournament Title. They played like the team everyone thought they were going to play like all season. Luke Kennard shot 50% from the field this season and has been the backbone of the team. His consistency has been one of the vital factors to Duke's success this season. Jayson Tatum has been the most impactful freshman out of the highly recruited freshman class that enrolled into Duke this year. The other freshman has had good seasons as well, but in particular, Tatum has had the best scoring the ball and playing consistently. With Kennard, Tatum, and Allen all scoring the ball efficiently lately, I do not see a team that could stop them. I do worry about their rebounding. That is perhaps their weakest link. This is where players such as Harry Giles will have to step up.

I was unable to submit this bracket online in time, so this is my way of submitting my picks to the world, you know, in case I am right and I could say, "I told you so." Kidding. Unless Duke does indeed win it all 👀. Good luck to my audience and your brackets. May the Madness bring about Gladness (unless you picked UNC to win it all ;)).

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