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Monday, March 6, 2017

ACC Tournament Predictions

Is There a True Favorite?

The Atlantic Coast Conference is one of the top conferences in Division I basketball. Each season, around 6 or so teams are selected to dance in the NCAA Tournament. The talent is rich in the conference. Teams such as UNC, Duke, UVA, Miami, and Notre Dame have been the most consistent participants from the ACC to play in the NCAA Tournament. Every season or two, a surprise team will arise from the conference and become one of the top teams. This season it was Florida State, as they improved from going 8-10 last year in the ACC, to 12-6, finishing in 2nd place.

Upsets tend to happen in every conference. They are decently consistent in the major conferences (PAC 12, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, etc). In the ACC, they are quite common, especially this season. Teams such as Georgia Tech, Wake Forrest, Syracuse, and Miami all have multiple, quality victories against some of the top teams in the conference. 

- #11 seed Georgia Tech has defeated UNC, Notre Dame, and Florida State.
- #10 seed Wake Forrest has wins over Louisville and Miami
- #9 seed Miami has dubs against UNC, Duke, and UVA
- #8 seed Syracuse has upset Duke, UVA, and Florida State

The playing field in the ACC is nearly even. You can trace last-place Boston College to first-place UNC. In fact, let's do that real quick:

Boston College defeated Syracuse.
- Syracuse defeated Duke.
- Duke defeated UNC.

The funny thing is, that is not the only path that can be traced to Boston College and UNC! Now, am I saying Boston College can beat UNC? Ye- hold up. There is NO WAY Boston College can defeat the ACC Regular season champs. Have you looked at the calendar to see what month it is 👀? 

As crazy as the ACC is and the month of March is, this scenario is very unlikely to happen. Boston College would first have to win 4 games in a row against teams they have lost to some more than once this season. It would be amazing to see, but highly unlikely. Here is what the 2017 ACC Tournament Bracket look like:

http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-baskbl/2017_mbb_bracket.pdf?utm_source=all&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=mbb&utm_content=17tourney


First Round
#12 Clemson vs #13 NC State
Clemson has had a frustrating year in the ACC. Eight of their 12 ACC losses have been decided by 5 points or less. Do not sleep on the hunger of the Tigers. I see them knocking off an out of sync NC State squad and move on to face Duke in the second round.  

#10 Wake Forrest vs #15 Boston College
Wake Forrest is playing some hot basketball right now; Roll Deac's!

#11 Georgia Tech vs #14 Pitt
I've got an upset in this one. I'm picking Pitt to upset Georgia Tech. I feel the veterans on Pittsburgh will have a big day scoring the basketball and lead their team into the next round. This may burst Georgia Tech's chance on dancing in the NCAA Tournament if they lose here.

Second Round
#8 Cuse vs #9 Miami
This may be the best matchup of the tournament. Tough pick for sure, but give Syracuse in a close one!

#12 Clemson vs #5 Duke
I rather have Duke lose in their first round of the ACC Tourney than in their first round of the NCAA Tourney. Clemson will give them a hard time, but I'm taking the Blue Devils.

#10 Wake vs #7 Va Tech
I'm feeling aWake right now, despite it being late, and a Wake win. This potential matchup also has the makings of being the best of the ACC Tourney. It has high potential to come down to the wire. It's hard to go against Virginia Tech, and I'll honestly probably regret it.

#14 Pitt vs #6 UVA
Pitt has taken down UVA before, earlier in January, but not so recently. UVA avenged themselves on London Perrantes' senior night. The Cavaliers shouldn't have a problem, unless Jamel Artis, Sheldon Jeter, and Michael Young are all feeling it.

Third Round
#1 UNC vs #8 Syracuse
UNC has taken care of Syracuse their last couple of matchups. They'll probably do it again. If Syracuse defeats Miami and losses here, I still believe they will sneak into the NCAA Tourney.

#4 Louisville vs #5 Duke
A potentially solid matchup. A strong guard matchup between prolific scorers and playmakers Donovan Mitchell and Luke Kennard. I'm going to have to go with the Blue Devils here, and I am leaving bias out of it. 

#2 Florida State vs #10 Wake Forrest
I want to go with Wake because they are a hot team right now, especially if they go as far as I have picked them. Florida State has been a weird team this season. They looked as if they were the team to beat in the ACC early on, but they have bad losses to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh and can be inconsistent at times. However, it's Bacon time! I expect Dwayne Bacon to step up in the ACC Tourney, and against the Demon Deacons.

#3 Notre Dame vs #6 Virginia
This is another matchup that may go down as the best the ACC Tournament will see this season. I have more faith in a coin deciding this game than me choosing it. I'm going to pick Notre Dame because I feel they have more weapons on offense than UVA's efficiency to stop them from scoring.

Semifinals
#1 UNC vs #5 Duke
Well, well, well, what do we have here. A tie breaker to see who wins the season series between Carolina and Duke? This would be epic, and I hope this happens for the sake of the ACC, fans, and so I would be correct. The likelihood of this happening seems to be more in favor than not in favor, I believe. Really trying not to be biased here, I am going with the Blue Devils. Grayson and Kennard will shoot as good as they did when they first played Carolina.

#10 Wake Forrest vs #3 Notre Dame
Yeah, I know I mentioned Florida State would win and it was "Bacon time," but I feel like there is going to be one team that reaches the semifinals that is not ranked as a top 6 seed in the ACC Tournament. As crazy of a run, this would be for Wake Forrest, it would end here. Mike Brey's squad is going to click on every cylinder and they will move on to the ACC Championship.

ACC Championship: #5 Duke vs #3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame wins the 2017 ACC Tournament for the second time in three years. I predict they beat Duke only by 5 points or less. Notre Dame has one of the highest potentials of any team in the ACC not just in the ACC Tournament, but also the NCAA Tournament. Mike Brey has had recent success in the month of March the past couple seasons. He has the majority of the players he had last year, and I believe that same core will once again lead him to an ACC title. 


I am excited for the ACC Tournament and plan to watch as many games as I can. This week starts the beginning of the madness this month brings. I am overjoyed with the hype college basketball brings this time of year every year!



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